Should You Get Solar in 2026 or Wait Until 2027? Honest Math Inside

Most honest answer: **for ~75% of Florida homeowners, install now. For ~25%, wait 6-12 months.** Here's how to know which group you're in.

## The case for waiting

1. Solar panel prices have dropped 8% per year for 3 years running. A $22,400 system in 2026 could be $20,600 in 2027.

2. Battery storage costs are falling faster than panels. Powerwall-equivalent batteries are $11,500 in 2026, projected $9,200 in 2027.

3. New entrants to the FL market (more competition) typically lower prices another 5-7% YoY.

4. You might catch a state-level FL incentive that doesn't exist today.

**Potential savings from waiting 12 months: ~$1,800 (system) + $2,300 (battery if you're including one) = ~$4,100.**

## The case for installing now

1. **30% federal tax credit is locked at 30% through 2032 under current law.** OBBB legislation could change this, but as of May 2026 it's still 30%. If law changes mid-2026, anyone with a system installed by Dec 31 of that year gets grandfathered.

2. **You lose 12 months of utility savings.** At $150/mo bill, that's **$1,800 of foregone savings**.

3. **FL utility rates went up 4.2% YoY in 2025.** Likely continues at 3-5% annually. Every month you wait, your baseline utility cost goes up.

4. **Installation backlogs.** If everyone decides to install at year-end 2027 to chase the tax credit deadline, you'll wait 6-8 months for install. You'd effectively still be installing in 2028 anyway.

5. **Lock in current panel warranties.** Panel manufacturers occasionally revise warranty terms. Today's 25-year linear power warranty might be different by 2027.

**Cost of waiting 12 months: ~$1,800 (foregone utility savings) + risk of $6,720 tax credit loss = potential $8,520 downside.**

## The math, side by side

| Scenario | Wait 12 months | Install now | |---|---|---| | Savings from lower 2027 hardware cost | +$1,800 (system) | $0 | | Foregone utility savings | -$1,800 | $0 | | Tax credit risk if OBBB lowers credit | -$6,720 (potential) | $0 (locked in) | | Cost of capital (if waiting frees up your cash) | +$1,400 (12mo at 7%) | $0 | | **Net financial impact** | **-$5,320 worst case, +$1,400 best case** | **$0 baseline** |

The asymmetric risk is significant. The downside of waiting (-$5,320) is larger than the upside (+$1,400) in most scenarios.

## When waiting actually makes sense

1. **You're planning to move within 5 years.** Solar doesn't fully pay back until year 6-8. Don't install a 25-year asset on a 4-year time horizon.

2. **Your roof needs replacement in the next 3 years.** You'd have to remove and reinstall panels at $3K-$6K cost. Replace the roof first.

3. **You're bad-credit constrained and lease is your only option.** Wait for Sunrun or others to launch better 0%-escalator products in late 2026.

4. **You're shopping for a battery + solar bundle and battery is the priority.** Battery prices ARE dropping faster than solar. Worth waiting 12 months for Powerwall 4 launch (~Q4 2026).

## What I'd do

If you can pay cash or qualify for a sub-8% loan, and you're in your house for 6+ more years, and your roof is solid for another 15+ years: install now. The 30% tax credit risk + utility rate hike + foregone savings stack up against you.

If any of those don't apply, send me your situation and I'll give you a personalized take. Free 15-min Google Meet, no pitch: [solarfying.com/book](https://solarfying.com/book).