Should You Get Solar in 2026 or Wait Until 2027? Honest Math Inside

The "wait for prices to drop" argument vs the "lock in the 30% tax credit" argument, with actual 2026 vs 2027 pricing projections and a decision tree.

Most honest answer: for ~75% of Florida homeowners, install now. For ~25%, wait 6-12 months. Here's how to know which group you're in.

The case for waiting

  1. Solar panel prices have dropped 8% per year for 3 years running. A $22,400 system in 2026 could be $20,600 in 2027.

  2. Battery storage costs are falling faster than panels. Powerwall-equivalent batteries are $11,500 in 2026, projected $9,200 in 2027.

  3. New entrants to the FL market (more competition) typically lower prices another 5-7% YoY.

  4. You might catch a state-level FL incentive that doesn't exist today.

Potential savings from waiting 12 months: ~$1,800 (system) + $2,300 (battery if you're including one) = ~$4,100.

The case for installing now

  1. There is no federal credit deadline to time anymore. The 30% federal residential credit (Section 25D) ended for systems whose installation was completed after December 31, 2025. Waiting won't bring it back, and a 2026 quote that still subtracts it is a red flag — so the decision now rests on the items below, not on policy.

  2. You lose 12 months of utility savings. At $150/mo bill, that's $1,800 of foregone savings.

  3. FL utility rates went up 4.2% YoY in 2025. Likely continues at 3-5% annually. Every month you wait, your baseline utility cost goes up.

  4. Lock in current panel warranties. Panel manufacturers occasionally revise warranty terms. Today's 25-year linear power warranty might be different by 2027.

Cost of waiting 12 months: ~$1,800 (foregone utility savings), plus a 3-5% higher utility baseline when you do install.

The math, side by side

Scenario Wait 12 months Install now
Savings from lower 2027 hardware cost +$1,800 (system) $0
Foregone utility savings -$1,800 $0
Cost of capital (if waiting frees up your cash) +$1,400 (12mo at 7%) $0
Net financial impact -$400 if hardware doesn't drop, +$1,400 best case $0 baseline

Without a tax-credit cliff in play, the pure-money math is close to a wash. That means the decision turns on the non-financial items below — roof, how long you're staying, battery timing — not on a policy deadline.

When waiting actually makes sense

  1. You're planning to move within 5 years. Solar doesn't fully pay back until year 6-8. Don't install a 25-year asset on a 4-year time horizon.

  2. Your roof needs replacement in the next 3 years. You'd have to remove and reinstall panels at $3K-$6K cost. Replace the roof first.

  3. You're bad-credit constrained and lease is your only option. Wait for Sunrun or others to launch better 0%-escalator products in late 2026.

  4. You're shopping for a battery + solar bundle and battery is the priority. Battery prices ARE dropping faster than solar. Worth waiting 12 months for Powerwall 4 launch (~Q4 2026).

What I'd do

If you can pay cash or qualify for a sub-8% loan, and you're in your house for 6+ more years, and your roof is solid for another 15+ years: install now. Utility rate hikes + foregone savings stack up against you, and there's no federal credit coming back to reward the wait.

If any of those don't apply, send me your situation and I'll give you a personalized take. Free 15-min Google Meet, no pitch: solarfying.com/book.